The Phillies: No Longer the Beast of the East?

After signing Cliff Lee this past offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies have been widely favored to win the NL East again in 2011. However, I think they are putting too much stock in pitching in order to compensate for the fact that their offense is not what it once was. Last year, the San Francisco Giants pitched their way to the World Series and the Phillies took notes. The problem is they lost one of the cornerstones of their lineup in Jayson Werth. This is a huge loss because they lose his bat protecting Ryan Howard. Chase Utley is sidelined with an injury and doesn’t seem like he will be playing anytime soon.

According to Stephania Bell from ESPN, Chase Utley has been diagnosed with tendonitis, chondromalacia and bone inflammation in his right knee. All of these things coupled together make for a very uncomfortable Chase Utley, who, as recently as last week, hadn’t played defense or even run which is going to translate into fewer stolen bases and potentially fewer extra-base hits. The injuries are rather complex in that it’s not just a muscle or tendon that is in pain but the bone, as well. What this means for Utley is you may not see him in the Opening Day lineup for the Phillies and will instead see Wilson Valdez playing second base. The other more concerning issue is: if or when Utley comes back, what type of production can you expect from the All-Star?

Now that Ryan Howard has lost the protection behind him and a big bat in front of him, what can we expect from the slugger in 2011? I believe we are going to see his strikeouts go up because he is going to start chasing more pitches. Additionally, I think his HR and RBI totals will either be the around the same as last year (31 and 108) or may drop off a little bit, as well. Ryan Howard is still going to be an elite player and the cornerstone for the Phillies in 2011. However, I believe the Ryan Howard we saw from 2007-2009 is long gone.

The other problem I see is the bullpen. The Phillies lost Chad Durbin this offseason to the Cleveland Indians and Brad Lidge has become Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde at the closer position. You just don’t know which one you’re going to get on a given night. And if Lidge does struggle, Ryan Madson has not necessarily proved he can take up the reins. In 2008, Lidge converted a historic 41 of 41 save opportunities. In 2009 and 2010, he combined to blow 16 opportunities. I think the elbow and knee problems he has had the past couple of seasons may have been to blame for that but we will have to wait and see this year. The other interesting and encouraging statistic with Lidge, is the percentage of inherited runners he allows to score. Since 2008, Lidge has inherited a total of 13 runners when he comes into games. Of those 13, only four have scored. That’s good for less than 25%.

All in all, I think the Phillies starting rotation will likely be the best in baseball. However, aside from that, I don’t think there is anything spectacular the Phillies have to offer aside from an aging offense and a weaker bullpen. With the way the Phillies are set up, they will win games, but they are not the time they have been the past few years and I expect the divisional rival Braves and Marlins to capitalize on a weaker Philadelphia Phillies. I could potentially see the Phillies finishing third in the division behind both of those teams and missing the playoffs.