Monday, March 14, 2011

Is This ‘Next Year' on the North Side?

Every year Cubs’ fans are optimistic that their curse will finally come to an end.  This year, though, fans may have a legitimate reason to feel a bit more confident.  At the beginning of the offseason, I didn’t even give the Cubs a prayer.  Since then, the Cardinals have lost ace Adam Wainwright for the season, Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals is not 100%, and the Brewers just learned that Zack Greinke will start the season on the disabled list with a fractured rib.  Fortunately for the Cubs, there are no injury concerns.  The only concern that the team may have is clubhouse chemistry.  Earlier this month, third baseman Aramis Ramirez and pitcher Carlos Silva got into an altercation during a spring training game.  Silva was upset, despite him not having his best stuff, that the team kept committing errors on the field.  Ramirez took exception to Sliva’s complaint and both players had to be separated.  The Cubs’ new manager Mike Quade, who had the opportunity to manage the Cubs late last season, held a team meeting the next day. 

Under Quade last season, the Cubs finished 24-13.  Ending the season on a high note not only gives Quade credibility for the 2011 season, but it gives Cubs fans a reason to believe.  I believe that the Cubs manager does not have to earn the respect of the players; he has already done so while he was a coach under Lou Pinella.  Although there are some interesting personalities in Chicago, winning cures everything.  So if the Cubs get off to a fast start, then there should be hardly any off field distractions.
In order for the Cubs to actually succeed in 2011, they need consistency from certain players.  These players include Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome, and Carlos Zambrano.  Ramirez spent about a month and a half on the disabled list last season, so in 124 games last season, Ramirez hit .241 with 23 home runs and 83 runs batted in.  Both Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome were healthy throughout last year but age certainly showed in their performances.  Soriano hit 258 in 147 games while clubbing 24 home runs and 79 RBI.  What stood out from Soriano’s statistics from last year was his amount of stolen bases.  The All-Star outfielder was a lock for 20 steals a season.  Last season, Soriano only stole five bases. 

The Cubs’ right fielder Fukudome has not quite lived up the hype that he had when he signed with the Cubs in 2007.  Fukudome actually hit for a career-high .263 as well as a career-high in home runs with 13.  Unfortunately for the outfielder only scored 45 runs and collected just 94 hits.  These statistics caused Fukudome to lose his everyday job last season.  Fukudome’s contract ends after this season, so if the outfielder wants to remain with the Cubs, he’s going to have to put up numbers that are closer to his playing days in Japan.  In his last full season in Japan, Fukudome hit .351, 117 runs, 31 home runs, and 104 RBI in 130 games.

The longest tenured and most questionable Cub is Carlos Zambrano.  In additions to his rants and antics last season, Zambrano had lost his spot on the Cubs rotation.  Zambrano was demoted to the bullpen and after continuing to struggle in relief, he was demoted to the minor leagues.  Zambrano eventually made his way back to the Cubs rotation and performed very well.  The right-hander finished the 2010 season with an 8-0 record and an ERA of 1.41 in 11 starts.  These statistics show that Zambrano is more than capable of getting hitters out at the Major League level.  If you can keep his emotions in check during his starts, the Cubs have themselves another quality starter for the 2011 season.

During the offseason, the Cubs front office decided to add a couple of Rays to their roster to help the team out.  The Cubs signed former Tampa Bay Ray first baseman Carlos Pena to a one-year $10 million deal and traded for former Ray starting pitcher Matt Garza.  Pena will hopefully add that left-handed power bat in the lineup that the Cubs had been missing.  Garza will join a rotation that can be one of the best in the National League or one of the worse.  The Cubs also brought back a familiar face in Kerry Wood.  Wood will be used to preserve leads for closer Carlos Marmol.  This could be the most important move of the offseason because the Cubs need someone to bridge the gap between the starting pitcher and Carlos Marmol.  Also, if for some reason Marmol is ineffective in closing out games, Wood has had experience closing games.

Due to last year’s fifth place finish, the Cubs were able to showcase a lot of young talent.  Amongst them were shortstop Starlin Castro and outfielder/first baseman Tyler Colvin.  Castro hit an even .300 with three home runs, 41 runs batted in, and 10 stolen bases.  Castro’s success in 2010 has earned him the everyday job at shortstop for the 2011 season.  Despite Colvin’s great rookie year (.254, 20 HR, 56 RBI, and 6 SB in 135 games), he does not have an everyday job lined up for the 2011 season.  Colvin will have to settle for the Cubs’ fourth outfielder spot.  If either Fukudome or Soriano struggle mightily though, Colvin figures to be the first one to get a crack at an everyday job in the outfield.
The 2011 Chicago Cubs have a much better team than they may be given credit for.  

It’s obvious that the club is built to win this year, but if the team wants to make speculation and promise a reality, they are going to take control of ball games a lot sooner rather than playing catch up.  My feeling is the Cubs’ fans will be saying: “Go Cubs go! Go Cubs go! Hey Chicago, what do you say? The Cubs are gonna win today!” 

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