Blue Jays Are Stuck in Limbo

Although the Toronto Blue Jays have had winning seasons, they have not reached the postseason since winning it all in 1993.  The excuse of being victimized by playing in the AL East is quickly becoming irrelevant.  The Tampa Bay Rays have won the division in two of the last three seasons.  It seems as though the Blue Jays are in a vicious cycle of spending and then slashing payroll after a few seasons.  Toronto finished the 2010 season with an 85-77 record including a 45-33 record at the Rogers Center.  The Blue Jays suffered during the month of June going 9-17 during that stretch.  Aside from the month of June, the club combined to go 76-60.

Last offseason, the Blue Jays parted ways with star pitcher Roy Halladay.  In this three-team deal with the Phillies and Mariners, the Blue Jays acquired pitcher Brandon Morrow from Seattle and Phillies top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek.  Both of these pitchers have tremendous upside and should contribute once again this season.  This offseason, Toronto continued to slash payroll by trading fan-favorite Vernon Wells to the Angels.  In return, the Blue Jays received outfielder Juan Rivera, and catcher Mike Napoli.  Napoli was then sent to Texas for reliever Frank Francisco.  After those two significant trades, the Blue Jays seem to be relatively clear from any long-term deals.  

The long ball was the theme for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2010 and no one fit the profile more than Jose Bautista.  Bautista led Major League Baseball with 54 home runs in 2010.  The third baseman/outfielder was rewarded with a contract extension during the offseason.  The organization signed Bautista to a five-year $65 million deal.  The contract extension is certainly up for debate.  Throughout his career, Bautista had not hit more than 16 home runs in a season.  The argument used to defend Bautista is that fact that he began his home run surge late in the 2009 season.  In the month September of 2009, Bautista hit eight home runs in 27 games.  He probably will not hit 54 home runs again in 2011, but he probably will reach 35 to 40 home runs.

Aside from Bautista, the Blue Jays will feature more power with first baseman Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, and former first round draft pick J.P. Arencibia.  The lineup also has speed with newly acquired centerfielder Rajai Davis.  This batting order should do as well as did last season.  Last season, the Blue Jays ranked first in the Major Leagues with 257 home runs and slugging percentage at .454 in 5495 at-bats.

Pitching was an issue for the Blue Jays in 2010.  The club ranked 10^th in the American League with an ERA of 4.22 in 1440.2 innings.  The organization relied on Ricky Romero to be the ace of a young Blue Jays rotation last season.  Romero did not disappoint finishing 14-9 with an ERA of 3.73 in 32 starts.  The Jays will count on Romero to anchor the starting rotation again this season.  After Romero, the rotation will feature Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek, Brett Cecil, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Jesse Litsch.  This group of pitchers will need to go deeper into games and execute their pitches if the club is going to contend this season.

The Blue Jays focused their attention on the bullpen during the offseason.  Despite losing last year’s closer Kevin Gregg to free agency, the club added some veteran arms to close out games.  Octavio Dotel, Frank Francisco, and Jon Rauch were added to the bullpen this offseason.  All three relievers have closed out games in their careers and figure to be doing the same in Toronto.  The three have combined to save a total of 184 saves.  Unfortunately, both Dotel and Francisco will start the season on the disabled list.  These injuries will give Rauch the opportunity to close out games early on in the season.

The 2011 Toronto Blue Jays should not have a problem at the plate, but I am concerned with their starting pitching.  Aside from Romero, the rotation is mediocre at best and so I don’t see how this group can out-pitch anybody in the American League.  A last place finish for the Blue Jays is not out of the realm of possibility.  The other four teams in the division have upgraded their clubs and arguably look better than the Blue Jays in 2011.