Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Get Ready for a Long Summer in D.C.

The Washington Nationals had another terrible year in 2010 with a 69-93 record.  The losing record marked the club’s fifth consecutive losing season.  The bright spots for the Nationals last year were third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, first baseman Adam Dunn, and star pitching prospect Stephen Strasburg.  The not so bright spots for the Nationals in 2010 were the bullpen, the starting rotation, and outfielder Nyjer Morgan.

Let’s start with the positives.  The Nationals’ franchise player, Ryan Zimmerman, missed a few games due to a right hamstring injury but still managed to play in 142 games last season.  In those games, Zimmerman hit a career high .307 with 25 home runs, and 85 RBI.  This spring, Zimmerman has been bothered by a left groin strain but figures to be ready to go against the Braves this Thursday. 

Adam Dunn had a pretty good season in 2010.  Dunn hit .260 with 38 home runs, and 103 RBI in 158 games.  Dunn is a lock to hit over 35 home runs and knock in over 100 runs every year.  This year, however, Dunn will have a chance to put up those numbers for the White Sox.  Dunn signed a four-year $56 million deal with the Chicago White Sox in December. 

The Nationals’ 2009 first round draft pick, Stephen Strasburg, had an immediate impact when he was called up in June.  In his major league debut, Strasburg recorded 14 strikeouts against the Pirates.  In 12 major league starts, the rookie phenom finished with a 5-3 record and an ERA of 2.91 in 68 innings.  Unfortunately for Strasburg and the Nationals, Strasburg spent two stints on the disabled list and eventually was shut down for the rest of the season.  Strasburg underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will probably miss the entire 2011 season. 

The loss of Strasburg leads into the negatives of the 2010 Washington Nationals.  Had the Nationals’ rotation been respectable last year, the organization may not have needed to rush Strasburg up to the big leagues.  The team’s best starting pitcher last year was Livan Hernandez.  The 36-year old right-hander finished 10-12 with an ERA of 3.66 in 33 starts for the Nats.  Aside from Hernandez, the rest of the starting pitchers combined to win just 32 games.

The bullpen was less impressive blowing 20 saves in 57 opportunities.  The bright spot for the Nationals bullpen was Drew Storen.  The rookie reliever appeared in 54 games, posted an ERA of 3.58, and struck out 52 batters in 55.1 innings.  Storen is penciled in as the Nationals’ closer for the 2011 season.

The most negative aspect of the 2010 Nationals’ season was outfielder Nyjer Morgan.  Nyjer Morgan was supposed to be a table-setter, leadoff-type hitter for the Nationals in 2010.  Instead, Nyjer Morgan managed to hit only .253 with no home runs, 24 RBI and 34 stolen bases.  Morgan was also caught stealing 17 times and struck out 88 times in 509 at-bats.  Aside from his poor offensive performance, the outfielder’s conduct on the field was a distraction for not only the Nationals but for Major League Baseball as well.  Morgan was involved in two separate altercations during the 2010 season.  Both incidents began with Morgan trucking the catcher at home plate even though there was no play at home plate.  He was suspended for eight games last season.  Two days ago, the Nationals parted ways with the cancerous centerfielder and sent him to the Milwaukee Brewers.  It’s safe to say that the Nationals are in a much better position without him.

Jayson Werth on base against the Astros in Kissimmee.
Despite all of their subtractions, the club has added a few pieces for the 2011 season.  The most notable addition was outfielder Jayson Werth.  Werth signed as a free agent for a seven-year deal worth $126 million.  I believe that the Nationals definitely overpaid for the outfielder.  Werth has been part of the Philadelphia Phillies for that last four seasons and although he will be sorely missed in that lineup this season, he’s not worth $126 million over seven years.  Werth is a journeyman who has not been able to drive in more than 99 runs in any of his eight seasons in the major leagues.  The other troubling fact about Werth is that he is 31 years old going on 32 in May.  Seven years from now, the Nationals will wonder whether the veteran outfielder is even serviceable.  As far as Werth is concerned, he made the right decision.  I don’t believe that any other club would have signed him to such a large contract because there is too much risk involved.  I don’t want to question Jayson Werth’s desire to win, but he is not helping his case at all with his latest contract.

Werth was not the only addition made by the Nationals this offseason.  The club also added outfielder Rick Ankiel and first baseman Adam LaRoche.  Both of these left-handed bats will help out a lineup that features the aforementioned Zimmerman and Werth, shortstop Ian Desmond, second baseman Danny Espinosa, outfielder Michael Morse, and catcher Ivan Rodriguez.  This lineup looks a lot more competitive than it did last year, but I do expect them to strikeout quite a bit this season.

The pitching rotation in 2011 will start off with Livan Hernandez this Thursday against the Braves.  After Hernandez, the rotation will feature John Lannan, Jordan Zimmermann, Jason Marquis, and Tom Gorzelanny.  If the rotation can stay intact for the entire season, the Nationals can at least be competitive this season.  Otherwise we can expect a lot of no decisions by the starting pitchers and a lot of work out of the bullpen.

We’ll see what happens in Washington, but my guess is that the Nationals will end up under .500 and in fourth place in the NL East.  It’ll be intriguing to see how Jayson Werth performs in the number two whole in the Nationals’ lineup this season.  I also would like to see how outfielder Michael Morse performs now that he is the everyday left fielder for Washington this season.  So far this spring, Morse has hit nine home runs and has knocked in 18 RBI in 21 games.  Ultimately, I believe it will be a long summer in our nation’s capital.  At least the organization does not have to deal with Nyjer Morgan this season.  

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