My Predictions for the 2011 Major League Baseball Season

After visiting and previewing the different teams around the league during Spring Training, I’ll give my predictions on how things will shape in around the league.  I don’t have a mathematical system or any statistical backing for my predictions.  These predictions are simply based on my gut feeling.  So, without further ado, here it goes…

                   

NL East	NL Central	NL West
y-Braves     91-71	y-Cardinals 90-72	y-Giants    95-67
x-Phillies 89-73	Reds 88-74	Dodgers   86-76
Marlins      86-76	Brewers 83-79	Rockies    83-79
Nationals  76-86	Cubs 80-82	Padres      79-83
Mets           68-94	Pirates 66-96	D-backs    64-98
	Astros 61-101

AL East	AL Central	AL West
y-Red Sox 111-51	y-White Sox 89-73	y-Rangers   92-70
x-Yankees   98-64	Twins            88-74	Athletics     85-77
Rays            84-78	Tigers            82-80	Angels        81-81
Orioles        81-81	Royals           73-89	Mariners   57-105
Blue Jays    77-85	Indians          63-99

NL Division Series                                    AL Division Series

Phillies 2 vs. Giants 3                                Yankees 3 vs. Rangers 1

Cardinals 1 vs. Braves 3                           White Sox 0 vs. Red Sox 3

NL Championship Series                          AL Championship Series

Braves 1 vs. Giants 4                                Yankees 4 vs. Red Sox 3

2011 World Series:                                    Giants 4 vs. Yankees 2

NL MVP: Albert Pujols                            AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez

NL CY Young: Roy Halladay                  AL CY Young: Felix Hernandez

NL ROY: Brandon Belt                           AL ROY: Jeremy Hellickson

Despite my predictions, I feel that this season will once again be filled with surprises.  After all, who had the San Francisco Giants winning it all last year?  This season will be filled with exhilarating moments, heart breaking moments, gut-wrenching moments, and memorable moment for years to come.  Let’s get this party started!

It Will Be A Memorable Season in the Bronx

The New York Yankees fell just short of defending their World Series title when the Texas Rangers eliminated them in the American League Championship Series.  During the regular season, the Bronx Bombers finished 95-67 and had a winning record or at .500 in just about every win/loss split.  If there was one deficiency the Yankees had last season it was their pitching.  Aside from their ace C.C. Sabathia, the rotation was not able to pitch deep into games and therefore hand the ball to the middle relievers earlier into games.  The other issue the Yankees had was the fact that there was really no pitcher who could bridge the gap between the starting pitcher and closer Mariano Rivera.  Yankees’ relievers blew 18 saves during the 2010 season and allowed 29% of their inherited runners to score.

This offseason, the Yankees didn’t make the big splash that we are accustomed to seeing, but they add some players.  The team added a much needed setup man in Rafael Soriano.  Soriano was the closer of the Tampa Bay Rays in 2010 and saved a total of 45 games.  Although Soriano will not be closing in New York, he will serve as an incredible setup man.  After being the full-time closer in Tampa Bay last season, it will be interesting to see how Soriano adapts to pitching in the seventh or eighth inning again.  He was the setup man in both Seattle and Atlanta before closing for the Rays.  The Yankees also added catcher Russell Martin, outfielder Andruw Jones, third baseman Eric Chavez, and starting pitchers Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon.  This eclectic group of veterans will be given a chance to resurrect their careers and be used to fill out the major league roster.  Russell Martin is slated to be the opening day catcher tomorrow against the Tigers.  Andruw Jones will be used to come off the bench and get the occasional start in the outfield.  Eric Chavez will also come off the bench but will be used to get the occasional start at first base, third base, or at designated hitter.  Freddy Garcia was named the number five man in the starting rotation this season.  Bartolo Colon will be used out of the bullpen this year.

Bartolo Colon did not win a spot in the starting rotation because of Ivan Nova.  Nova was in a position battle for the final two spots in the starting rotation for this season.  During spring training, Nova finished with a 2-0 record and an ERA of 1.80 in 20 innings.  His spring numbers apparently made the case to solidify a spot in the starting rotation.  Nova actually pitched in 10 games for the Yankees last season.  He went 1-2 with an ERA of 4.50 in 42 innings.  If Nova fails to keep his spot in the rotation, Colon can always take his place or the Yankees can seek options outside of the organization. 

Much like last season, the Yankees lineup shouldn’t run into any problems.  This year, manager Joe Giardi is going with left fielder Brett Gardner as their leadoff man followed by team captain Derek Jeter, first baseman Mark Teixeira, third baseman Alex Rodriguez, second baseman Robinson Cano, right fielder Nick Swisher, designated hitter Jorge Posada, centerfielder Curtis Granderson, and catcher Russell Martin.  Shortstop Derek Jeter is 74 hits away from 3,000 career hits.  Only 27 players in major league history have reached that plateau.  This lineup figures to score a lot of runs night in and night out and that’s probably how they are going to win most of their games in 2011.

The Yankees are not known for having young talent in their minor league system, but they do have a young left-hander out of Mexico named Manny Banuelos.  This kid can pitch very well.  In 12.2 spring training innings, he went 1-1 with an ERA of 2.13 struck out 14 batters and held opponents to a .227 batting average.  Hopefully, when the trading deadline arrives this season, the Yankees would have the presence of mind to keep the young prospect for a change.

If the Yankees are going to make another run at a World Series this season, I believe they are going to have to acquire another starting pitcher.  Freddy Garcia and Ivan Nova are adequate options for now, but this team is going to need another top of the line starter in that rotation.  Despite that moves that the Red Sox made this offseason, the Yankees still have a shot to get into the playoffs.  We could very well see a Yankees-Red Sox ALCS for the first time since 2004.  This would make for an exciting summer and fall in the Bronx.  

Rays Still Relevant Despite Subtractions

Once the Rays’ season finished with an early exit from the playoffs, the team prepared themselves for the inevitable.  Outfielder Carl Crawford signed with the Red Sox, first baseman Carlos Pena signed with the Cubs, Rafael Soriano signed with the Yankees, starting pitcher Matt Garza was sent to the Cubs, and shortstop Jason Bartlett was shipped to San Diego.  In addition to those major subtractions, the Rays lost relievers Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler, Joaquin Benoit, and Randy Choate.  All of these subtractions during the offseason are a recipe for disaster.

The Rays’ organization was looking at their top prospect outfielder Desmond Jennings to take over Crawford’s place in 2011.  Jennings is supposed to be a lot like Carl Crawford, but he was not as impressive during his cup of coffee at the big league level last year.  In 21 at-bats, Jennings hit .190 with no home runs, two runs batted in, and two stolen bases.  His poor performance may have prompted the organization to go in a different direction for this season.  The Rays signed free agents Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon.  Although they may be up in age, there really is no risk involved.  Last season, Manny played for both the Dodgers and the White Sox.  He spent the season on and off of the disabled list and in 90 games he hit .298 with nine home runs and 42 RBI.  Damon played in more games than Manny last season but did not have a great season.  In 145 games last season, Damon hit .271 with eight home runs, 51 RBI, and 11 stolen bases as a member of the Tigers.  Having said that, I believe that both of these guys have some stuff left in the tank and can definitely contribute to the lineup.

Before the signings of Ramirez and Damon, I was beginning to think that Evan Longoria was going to be the only source of offense for the Rays in 2011.  Longoria is arguably the best third baseman in the game and perhaps the best player in the American League.  Last season, Longoria hit .294 with 22 home runs and 104 RBI in 151 games.  Longoria will have some support in the lineup and should end up with even better numbers in 2011.

Since 2008, the Rays have featured one of the best pitching staffs in the American League.  Despite losing Garza in the offseason, the rotation is still looking solid for the upcoming season.  The Rays’ ace, David Price, had a tremendous season in 2010.  The left-hander was chosen to start the All-Star game last season and finished the year with a 19-6 record with an ERA of 2.72 in 208.2 innings.  The rest of the rotation features James Shields, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and rookie Jeremy Hellickson.  The emergence of Hellickson last season made it easier for the organization to move Garza.  In 36.1 innings last season, Hellickson went 4-0 with an ERA of 3.47, and struck out 33 batters.

The Matt Garza trade to the Cubs was a very smart move by the organization.  Not only did the Rays already have five starting pitchers ready to go outside of Garza, but what the organization got in return was tremendous.  In exchange for Garza and outfielder Fernando Perez, the Rays acquired top pitching prospect Chris Archer along with other prospects from the Cubs.  Between Single-A and Double-A last season, Archer finished 15-3 with an ERA of 2.34 in 28 games.  It won’t be long before we see Chris Archer in uniform of the Tampa Bay Rays.

The cause for concern for these Rays is the bullpen.  The key additions to the bullpen during the offseason were Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth, and Adam Russell.  I’m not necessarily sold this group getting it done late in games.  Joel Peralta seems to be the projected closer for the Rays for this season.  In 49 innings for the Nationals last season, Peralta went 1-0 with an ERA of 2.02, and struck out 49 batters.

The Rays are ready to defend their division title this year but it won’t be easy.  The Red Sox, Yankees, and Orioles all made significant upgrades to their team.  The Rays are hoping that with the leadership of manager Joe Maddon and the presence of Longoria, Ramirez, and Damon in the lineup they can make a legitimate run at winning the American League East for the third time in the last four seasons.  Ultimately, I think the Red Sox will be too much for the Rays to overcome for the division title, but a shot at the Wild Card is not out of the question.

Blue Jays Are Stuck in Limbo

Although the Toronto Blue Jays have had winning seasons, they have not reached the postseason since winning it all in 1993.  The excuse of being victimized by playing in the AL East is quickly becoming irrelevant.  The Tampa Bay Rays have won the division in two of the last three seasons.  It seems as though the Blue Jays are in a vicious cycle of spending and then slashing payroll after a few seasons.  Toronto finished the 2010 season with an 85-77 record including a 45-33 record at the Rogers Center.  The Blue Jays suffered during the month of June going 9-17 during that stretch.  Aside from the month of June, the club combined to go 76-60.

Last offseason, the Blue Jays parted ways with star pitcher Roy Halladay.  In this three-team deal with the Phillies and Mariners, the Blue Jays acquired pitcher Brandon Morrow from Seattle and Phillies top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek.  Both of these pitchers have tremendous upside and should contribute once again this season.  This offseason, Toronto continued to slash payroll by trading fan-favorite Vernon Wells to the Angels.  In return, the Blue Jays received outfielder Juan Rivera, and catcher Mike Napoli.  Napoli was then sent to Texas for reliever Frank Francisco.  After those two significant trades, the Blue Jays seem to be relatively clear from any long-term deals.  

The long ball was the theme for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2010 and no one fit the profile more than Jose Bautista.  Bautista led Major League Baseball with 54 home runs in 2010.  The third baseman/outfielder was rewarded with a contract extension during the offseason.  The organization signed Bautista to a five-year $65 million deal.  The contract extension is certainly up for debate.  Throughout his career, Bautista had not hit more than 16 home runs in a season.  The argument used to defend Bautista is that fact that he began his home run surge late in the 2009 season.  In the month September of 2009, Bautista hit eight home runs in 27 games.  He probably will not hit 54 home runs again in 2011, but he probably will reach 35 to 40 home runs.

Aside from Bautista, the Blue Jays will feature more power with first baseman Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, and former first round draft pick J.P. Arencibia.  The lineup also has speed with newly acquired centerfielder Rajai Davis.  This batting order should do as well as did last season.  Last season, the Blue Jays ranked first in the Major Leagues with 257 home runs and slugging percentage at .454 in 5495 at-bats.

Pitching was an issue for the Blue Jays in 2010.  The club ranked 10^th in the American League with an ERA of 4.22 in 1440.2 innings.  The organization relied on Ricky Romero to be the ace of a young Blue Jays rotation last season.  Romero did not disappoint finishing 14-9 with an ERA of 3.73 in 32 starts.  The Jays will count on Romero to anchor the starting rotation again this season.  After Romero, the rotation will feature Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek, Brett Cecil, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Jesse Litsch.  This group of pitchers will need to go deeper into games and execute their pitches if the club is going to contend this season.

The Blue Jays focused their attention on the bullpen during the offseason.  Despite losing last year’s closer Kevin Gregg to free agency, the club added some veteran arms to close out games.  Octavio Dotel, Frank Francisco, and Jon Rauch were added to the bullpen this offseason.  All three relievers have closed out games in their careers and figure to be doing the same in Toronto.  The three have combined to save a total of 184 saves.  Unfortunately, both Dotel and Francisco will start the season on the disabled list.  These injuries will give Rauch the opportunity to close out games early on in the season.

The 2011 Toronto Blue Jays should not have a problem at the plate, but I am concerned with their starting pitching.  Aside from Romero, the rotation is mediocre at best and so I don’t see how this group can out-pitch anybody in the American League.  A last place finish for the Blue Jays is not out of the realm of possibility.  The other four teams in the division have upgraded their clubs and arguably look better than the Blue Jays in 2011.  

Tigers Ready to Claw Their Way into October

The Detroit Tigers finished the 2010 season in third place with a record of 81-81 in the AL Central.  The Tigers got off to a nice start last season finishing the first half of the season with a 48-38 record.  The second half of the season however was not so kind to Jim Leyland and the Tigers.  The club finished 33-43 during that span.  The one glaring deficiency that the Tigers had last season was playing in one-run games.  In 42 one-run games, the Tigers posted a 16-26 record.  The team was not able to get it done outside of Comerica Park last season.  They finished 29-52 on the road.

The Tigers dealt fan favorite Curtis Granderson to the Yankees for top prospect outfielder Austin Jackson and pitcher Phil Coke.  Jackson played in 151 games for the Tigers last season.  The outfielder hit .293 with four home runs, 41 RBI, 103 runs, 10 triples, and 27 stolen bases.  Unfortunately for Jackson, he led the American League with 170 strikeouts.  That is not a statistic that Austin Jackson should be leading in.  If he is going to have a better sophomore season, he is going to have to severely cut down on the strikeouts.  Phil Coke appeared in 74 games for the Tigers last season and finished with a 7-5 record with an ERA of 3.76 and two saves.  Coke will get a chance to pitch in the Tigers rotation in 2011.

This offseason, the Tigers added veteran Brad Penny to the starting rotation.  Penny has pitched for the Marlins, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, and Cardinals in his 11-year career.  Penny has been slowed by injury and inconsistencies for the last three seasons but hopes to regain his All-Star form of 2007 where he finished 16-4 with an ERA of 3.03 in 33 starts for the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Penny will start the second game of the season for the Tigers this season.

The biggest offseason move for the Tigers was the addition of catcher Victor Martinez.  Martinez played last season with the Boston Red Sox.  The Venezuelan native hit .302 with 20 home runs and 79 RBI in 127 games.  Martinez will provide a lot of help for a lineup that features fellow Venezuelan natives Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, and Jhonny Peralta.  Martinez is known for having a good eye at the plate.  The switch-hitting catcher only struck out 52 times in 493 at-bats last season.  Although Martinez can probably still catch at the major league level, he will be used primarily as the designated hitter. 

Miguel Cabrera made news this offseason when he was arrested and charged with a DUI in February.  There was a lot of question as to when Cabrera would return to the field this season because his past incidents with alcohol.  The Tigers’ organization gave Cabrera the go ahead to resume play but has been monitored throughout spring training and will continue to be monitored during the season.  Cabrera did not skip a beat once he returned to the field.  This spring, Cabrera is hitting .311 with four home runs and 16 RBI in 74 at-bats.  Miggy will be hitting cleanup in tomorrow’s opening day game against the Yankees.

The Tigers also added reliever Joaquin Benoit to the back-end of the bullpen.  Benoit had a comeback player of the season-type of performance last season with the Rays.  After missing all of 2009, the Rays took a chance on Benoit as a non-roster invitee.  In 63 games last season, Benoit finished the season 1-2 with an ERA of 1.34 and one save in 60.1 innings.  Benoit also posted a WHIP of 0.68 and held batters to a .147 batting average.  Benoit joins a bullpen that already has closer Jose Valverde and young reliever Ryan Perry.

This team is looking really good for the 2011 season, but they will have to play a lot better against their division rivals.  The Tigers finished 38-34 against their division rivals last season.  The lineup, the rotation, and the bullpen all appear to be at the top of the American League, but looks can be deceiving.  It’ll be a wild ride in the American League Central this season, but when it is all set and done, I believe the Tigers will fall just short of the postseason.           

The Young Astros are Almost There

Last season, Brad Mills got off to a horrible start to the 2010 season as the new manager of the Houston Astros.  The club ended the first half of the season with a 36-53 record including a combined 17-34 during the first two months of the season.  Somehow, the Astros made a nice turnaround and finished the second half with a 40-33 record.  Against their division rivals, the Astros posted a record of 45-33 including winning records against the Cubs (11-7), Brewers (8-7), Pirates (11-4), and Cardinals (10-5).  The 2010 Astros were full of ups and downs but managed to finish at a reasonable 76-86 record.  During the season, the Astros did part ways with starting pitcher Roy Oswalt and first baseman Lance Berkman.  In return for these iconic Astros, the team received left-handed starter J.A. Happ from Phillies and reliever Mark Melancon from the Yankees.

Brett Myers throwing a pitch against the Nats.

The strength of the Astros ball club in 2011 will be the starting rotation.  Former Phillies starter Brett Myers will get the opening day nod on Friday against the Phillies.  Last year with the Astros, Myers had a great bounce back year going 14-8 while posting an ERA of 3.14 in 33 starts and pitched a career-high 223.2 innings.  Myers definitely showed that he could still get it done at the major league level.  After Myers, the rotation follows with Wandy Rodriguez, Happ, Bud Norris, and Nelson Figueroa.  Rodriguez got off to rough start with the Astros last season, posting a record of 6-11 with an ERA of 4.97 in 18 first half starts.  In the second half of the season, Rodriguez was a completely different pitcher.  The lefty finished the second half with a 5-1 record and an ERA 2.11 in 14 starts.  The aforementioned Happ arrived to Houston in late July and hit the ground running.  Happ, who finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2009, finished his season with the Astros at 5-4 with an ERA of 3.75 in 13 starts.  The fourth starter in the rotation, Bud Norris, had a mediocre sophomore season in 2010.  The six-foot, 220-pound right-hander finished his 2010 campaign with a 9-10 record and an ERA of 4.92 in 27 starts.  In 153.2 innings last season, Norris recorded 158 strikeouts.  After watching Norris pitch for the last two seasons, chances are that his ERA will be over four runs, but he’ll strikeout his fair share of hitters.  The final spot of the rotation was awarded to Nelson Figueroa.  Figueroa joined the Astros last year after being released by the Phillies.  In 10 starts with the Astros last season, Figueroa went 5-3 with an ERA of 3.23 in 55.2 innings.

The Houston offense did not have a great 2010 season.  The club finished dead last in the National League in home runs with 108 and 15^th in RBI with 577.  The team also finished last in walks with 415 and 14^th in batting average at .247.  Despite such poor offensive production, the Astros were active on the bases.  The team combined to steal 100 bases, which ranked fifth amongst National League teams.  The Astros made a couple of additions to the everyday lineup with the additions of Clint Barmes and Bill Hall.  Unfortunately, Barmes broke a bone in his hand last week and will miss four to six weeks.  The Astros still have speedster Michael Bourn and run-producers Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee.  Lee, also known as “El Caballo,” did play in 157 games last season, but his numbers did not show it.  The outfielder hit .246 with 24 home runs and 89 RBI.  The decline in his numbers is a cause for concern for the 2011 season.  It seems as though Lee’s better days are way behind him. 

Luckily for the organization, there are some younger players on the team that will be contributing this season.  Third baseman Chris Johnson and first baseman Brett Wallace will get a chance to play every day for an entire season in 2011.  In 94 games last season, Johnson hit .308 with 11 home runs, and 52 RBI.  The only knock on Johnson however is that he struck out 91 times in the 94 games that he played in.  Brett Wallace had been traded on three separate occasions before even having an at-bat at the major league level.  Wallace was last traded by the Blue Jays to the Astros for a minor league outfielder.  The first baseman got his feet wet at the major leagues for 51 games.  In 144 at-bats, the left-handed hitting first baseman hit .222 with two home runs and knocked in 13 RBI.  In 66 spring training at-bats this year, Wallace is hitting .379 with a home run and 18 RBI.  Hopefully, with consistent playing time in 2011, both Johnson and Wallace will help out Houston’s pedestrian offense.

The Astros have a lot of promise going into the 2011 season.  Realistically, however, it may take more than just this season to return to the postseason.  If fact, the Astros may finish below .500 again.  Regardless of where this team will finish this year, they will definitely be a thorn on the side of many teams in the National League.  The organization as well as the fans should just sit back, relax, and watch their young Astros play competitive baseball in 2011.  Hopefully, we will see this club lift off soon enough. 

Get Ready for a Long Summer in D.C.

The Washington Nationals had another terrible year in 2010 with a 69-93 record.  The losing record marked the club’s fifth consecutive losing season.  The bright spots for the Nationals last year were third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, first baseman Adam Dunn, and star pitching prospect Stephen Strasburg.  The not so bright spots for the Nationals in 2010 were the bullpen, the starting rotation, and outfielder Nyjer Morgan.

Let’s start with the positives.  The Nationals’ franchise player, Ryan Zimmerman, missed a few games due to a right hamstring injury but still managed to play in 142 games last season.  In those games, Zimmerman hit a career high .307 with 25 home runs, and 85 RBI.  This spring, Zimmerman has been bothered by a left groin strain but figures to be ready to go against the Braves this Thursday. 

Adam Dunn had a pretty good season in 2010.  Dunn hit .260 with 38 home runs, and 103 RBI in 158 games.  Dunn is a lock to hit over 35 home runs and knock in over 100 runs every year.  This year, however, Dunn will have a chance to put up those numbers for the White Sox.  Dunn signed a four-year $56 million deal with the Chicago White Sox in December. 

The Nationals’ 2009 first round draft pick, Stephen Strasburg, had an immediate impact when he was called up in June.  In his major league debut, Strasburg recorded 14 strikeouts against the Pirates.  In 12 major league starts, the rookie phenom finished with a 5-3 record and an ERA of 2.91 in 68 innings.  Unfortunately for Strasburg and the Nationals, Strasburg spent two stints on the disabled list and eventually was shut down for the rest of the season.  Strasburg underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will probably miss the entire 2011 season. 

The loss of Strasburg leads into the negatives of the 2010 Washington Nationals.  Had the Nationals’ rotation been respectable last year, the organization may not have needed to rush Strasburg up to the big leagues.  The team’s best starting pitcher last year was Livan Hernandez.  The 36-year old right-hander finished 10-12 with an ERA of 3.66 in 33 starts for the Nats.  Aside from Hernandez, the rest of the starting pitchers combined to win just 32 games.

The bullpen was less impressive blowing 20 saves in 57 opportunities.  The bright spot for the Nationals bullpen was Drew Storen.  The rookie reliever appeared in 54 games, posted an ERA of 3.58, and struck out 52 batters in 55.1 innings.  Storen is penciled in as the Nationals’ closer for the 2011 season.

The most negative aspect of the 2010 Nationals’ season was outfielder Nyjer Morgan.  Nyjer Morgan was supposed to be a table-setter, leadoff-type hitter for the Nationals in 2010.  Instead, Nyjer Morgan managed to hit only .253 with no home runs, 24 RBI and 34 stolen bases.  Morgan was also caught stealing 17 times and struck out 88 times in 509 at-bats.  Aside from his poor offensive performance, the outfielder’s conduct on the field was a distraction for not only the Nationals but for Major League Baseball as well.  Morgan was involved in two separate altercations during the 2010 season.  Both incidents began with Morgan trucking the catcher at home plate even though there was no play at home plate.  He was suspended for eight games last season.  Two days ago, the Nationals parted ways with the cancerous centerfielder and sent him to the Milwaukee Brewers.  It’s safe to say that the Nationals are in a much better position without him.

Jayson Werth on base against the Astros in Kissimmee.

Despite all of their subtractions, the club has added a few pieces for the 2011 season.  The most notable addition was outfielder Jayson Werth.  Werth signed as a free agent for a seven-year deal worth $126 million.  I believe that the Nationals definitely overpaid for the outfielder.  Werth has been part of the Philadelphia Phillies for that last four seasons and although he will be sorely missed in that lineup this season, he’s not worth $126 million over seven years.  Werth is a journeyman who has not been able to drive in more than 99 runs in any of his eight seasons in the major leagues.  The other troubling fact about Werth is that he is 31 years old going on 32 in May.  Seven years from now, the Nationals will wonder whether the veteran outfielder is even serviceable.  As far as Werth is concerned, he made the right decision.  I don’t believe that any other club would have signed him to such a large contract because there is too much risk involved.  I don’t want to question Jayson Werth’s desire to win, but he is not helping his case at all with his latest contract.

Werth was not the only addition made by the Nationals this offseason.  The club also added outfielder Rick Ankiel and first baseman Adam LaRoche.  Both of these left-handed bats will help out a lineup that features the aforementioned Zimmerman and Werth, shortstop Ian Desmond, second baseman Danny Espinosa, outfielder Michael Morse, and catcher Ivan Rodriguez.  This lineup looks a lot more competitive than it did last year, but I do expect them to strikeout quite a bit this season.

The pitching rotation in 2011 will start off with Livan Hernandez this Thursday against the Braves.  After Hernandez, the rotation will feature John Lannan, Jordan Zimmermann, Jason Marquis, and Tom Gorzelanny.  If the rotation can stay intact for the entire season, the Nationals can at least be competitive this season.  Otherwise we can expect a lot of no decisions by the starting pitchers and a lot of work out of the bullpen.

We’ll see what happens in Washington, but my guess is that the Nationals will end up under .500 and in fourth place in the NL East.  It’ll be intriguing to see how Jayson Werth performs in the number two whole in the Nationals’ lineup this season.  I also would like to see how outfielder Michael Morse performs now that he is the everyday left fielder for Washington this season.  So far this spring, Morse has hit nine home runs and has knocked in 18 RBI in 21 games.  Ultimately, I believe it will be a long summer in our nation’s capital.  At least the organization does not have to deal with Nyjer Morgan this season.  

Orioles Look to Buck the Trend in 2011

The last time the Baltimore Orioles had a winning season, they were eliminated by the Cleveland Indians in the 1997 American League Championship Series.  Since then, the team has finished under .500 for 13 consecutive seasons.  Over the last few seasons, the Orioles have elected to showcase a lot of young talented players such as Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and Brian Matusz.  These players have been relatively successful in their young careers, but were not benefitting from good leadership.  Last season, the Orioles fired manager Dave Trembley who started the season 15-39 and replaced him with Juan Samuel on an interim basis.  After 51 games, Buck Showalter replaced Samuel.  From the moment Showalter was named the manager, the Orioles flipped a switch.  The team finished 34-23 under their new manager. This great finish has provided hope for not only Orioles’ fans but for the organization, reassuring them that better days lie ahead. 

Nick Markakis facing the Pirates in Sarasota

The organization had one of its busiest off-seasons in a while.  The transformation of the Orioles began with a trade with the Diamondbacks that sent pitchers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio to Arizona for power hitting third baseman Mark Reynolds.  Even though Reynolds hit .198 in 499 at-bats and struck out 211 times, the third baseman hit 32 home runs last season and 44 the season before that.  Reynolds’ power is tailor-made for Camden Yards and should be a major contributor in the lineup. The acquisition of Mark Reynolds was not enough for the Orioles.  The organization continued their upgrade of the lineup with the acquisitions of J.J. Hardy, Derrek Lee, and Vladimir Guerrero.  

Hardy spent last season with the Minnesota Twins where he hit .268 with six home runs and 38 RBI.  Like Reynolds, Hardy has the ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark.  In 2008 with the Milwaukee Brewers, Hardy hit 24 home runs in 146 games.  Aside from his offensive potential, Hardy is best known for his glove.  The veteran shortstop ranks fifth in fielding percentage amongst the players at his position.  

Derrek Lee signed a one-year contract with the Orioles this offseason.  Last season, the Gold Glove first baseman played with both the Chicago Cubs and the Atlanta Braves.  Lee battled thumb and back injuries last season but managed to play in 148 games.  In those games, he hit .260 with 19 home runs and 80 RBI.  If it were not for those nagging injuries last season, I believe Lee could have had a better season.  If Lee can play relatively injury free this season, his presence in the lineup and on the field will definitely be felt.  

Vladimir Guerrero

The final offensive upgrade for the Orioles was designated hitter, Vladimir Guerrero.  Guerrero had a tremendous bounce back year with the Texas Rangers last season.  In 152 games last season, he hit for an even .300 batting average with 29 home runs and 115 RBI.  Last year's statistics proved that Guerrero's unorthodox hitting style can still get it done at the Major League level.

The Orioles also added some pitching this off-season.  Pitchers Justin Duchscherer, Jeremy Accardo, and Kevin Gregg were brought in to provide experience on the mound.  Baltimore took a chance on Justin Duchscherer this off-season to be a part of a young rotation.  Despite his success in the big leagues, Duchscherer can’t seem to stay healthy.  The right-hander has battled hip and elbow problems throughout his career and unfortunately will begin this season on the disabled list.  Jeremy Accardo has also battled injury issues throughout his career.  The reliever’s career highlight consists of a 30 save season in 2007 for the Toronto Blue Jays.  Another former Blue Jay who joined the Orioles this off-season is Kevin Gregg.  Gregg is probably the favorite to win the closer’s job this season.  Last season with the Blue Jays, Gregg 37 saves in 43 opportunities and posted an ERA of 3.51 in 59 innings.

The Orioles can have all the hitting in the world, but if they don’t have adequate pitching this season, they may be looking at another losing season.  As of now, the rotation will feature Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Brian Bergesen, and Chris Tillman.  Guthrie is the veteran of the rotation and has been nothing but a workhorse throughout his career in Baltimore.  In 209.1 innings last season, Guthrie went 11-14 with an ERA of 3.83 in 32 starts.  The younger pitchers in the rotation have a lot to prove in 2011 especially since they had sub-par seasons in 2010. 

With the off-season moves made this season, the Orioles seem ready to go for Opening Day.  The only issue that Showalter needs to address is the final four bench spots on the roster.  Catcher Jake Fox is making a case to break camp with the big league club.  Fox is hitting .323 with nine home runs and 14 RBI in 23 games.  He made his major league debut with the Chicago Cubs in 2007 and also played for the A’s before being sent to Baltimore mid way through last season.  His spring training stats should make him a no-brainer to make the team, but there may not be any room for his bat on the 25-man roster.  Fox is a better hitter than he is a fielder, so his value sort of takes a hit because of that.  If Fox were to make the team, his at-bats will definitely decrease because he will not be starting for the Orioles.  A decrease in plate appearances may actually jeopardize his production at the plate during the season.  So, because Fox is not adept with the glove, the issue here is whether Fox will remain productive hitter as a bench-player in 2011.   

The only two players who are guaranteed a spot on the bench are shortstop Cesar Izturis and outfielder Felix Pie.  Aside from Jake Fox, catcher Craig Tatum, infielder Robert Andino, and outfielder Nolan Reimold are battling for the final two bench spots.  There has been interest in Andino by other teams, so he may be out of the picture before Opening Day.  Tatum is trying to win the backup catcher position and has the defensive edge over Fox.  Outfielder Nolan Reimold seems to be the odd man out because of the depth in the Orioles outfield.  His spring training statistics are not making the decision any easier for Showalter.  Reimold is hitting .320 with three home runs and 10 RBI in 50 spring training at-bats.

One can argue that the stars are finally aligned for the Orioles in 2011.  Manager Buck Showalter will have a full season with an experienced group at the plate and a young group of guys on the mound.  I believe the Orioles will be making some noise this upcoming season and have a chance to finally finish with a winning record for the first time since 1997.  If the Orioles want to make this projection a reality, the young rotation will have to prove that they belong in the major leagues by going deeper into games.  As far as the offense is concerned, players like Brian Roberts, Derrek Lee, and Vladimir Guerrero have to remain relatively healthy throughout the entire season.  If they don’t, their absence will definitely be felt.  Get ready for an exciting season in Baltimore.

The Pirates Are Sailing in the Right Direction

It’s a good thing the city of Pittsburgh has the Steelers because the Pirates have been a disappointment since 1992.  That’s right, the Pirates have not finished over .500 since they lost to the Braves in the National League Championship Series against the Braves.  Last season, the Pirates finished in last place for the fourth consecutive season with a record of 57-105.  The only bright spot for the Pirates last season was that they showcased their young talent.  Players like Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, and Jose Tabata, will become household names in the near future.

Pedro Alvarez at-bat vs. Orioles in Sarasota

Second baseman Neil Walker finished fifth in the National League Rookie of the Year voting.  He finished the season hitting .296 with 12 home runs, and 66 RBI in 110 games.  The first round draft pick for the Pirates in 2008 Pedro Alvarez displayed incredible power in 2010.  The third baseman hit .256 with 16 home runs and 64 RBI in just 95 games.  The Pirates also called up 21-year old outfielder Jose Tabata.  Tabata hit .299 with four home runs, 35 RBI, and 19 stolen bases in 102 games.  All three of these young Pirates will contribute to a lineup that already has former first round draft pick Andrew McCutchen and productive journeyman Garrett Jones.  McCutchen played in his first full season in 2010 and hit .286 with 16 home runs, 56 RBI, and 33 steals.  He also recorded eight outfield assists.  Like McCutchen, Jones was given the ability to play every day for the entire season in 2010.  The left-handed power hitter hit .247, clubbed 21 home runs, and knocked in 83 runs in 158 games.

During the offseason, the Pirates signed free agents Lyle Overbay and Matt Diaz.  Overbay spent the last five seasons as the Blue Jays’ everyday first baseman.  Last season, he hit for a .243 batting average with 20 home runs, and 67 RBI.  Overbay can also field the ball very well.  The veteran first baseman posted a fielding percentage of .996 and committed just six errors in 153 games.  Diaz was brought in as the Pirates fourth outfielder and a key bat off the bench.  Like Overbay, Diaz spent the last five seasons with the Atlanta Braves.  In only 84 games with the Braves last season, Diaz hit .250 with 7 home runs and 31 RBI.  Both of these veterans know what it takes to win in the big leagues and should instill a winning attitude in Pittsburgh.

Overbay and Diaz are not the only ones who will be instilling a winning attitude in 2011.  The Pirates organization also hired Clint Hurdle to manage this season.  Hurdle spent last season as the hitting coach for the American League Champion Texas Rangers and was the manager of the Rockies from 2002-2009.  During the 2007 season, Hurdle led the Rockies the World Series against the Red Sox.  Hurdle definitely knows what it takes to be a successful manager and should be able to instill confidence in his young players that they can win in the big leagues.

I believe that the pitcher has to have the most confidence on the field.  Therefore, if the Pirates are going to be successful this year or next year, they have to pitch a lot better.  The Pirates ranked dead last in the National League in ERA at 5.00 in 1438.1, Batting Average Against at .282, and Strikeouts with 1026.  The team also ranked 15^th in the National League in Quality Starts with 71.  These statistics are really not indicative of what the Pirates rotation and bullpen are capable of.  The projected rotation for 2011 is as follows: Kevin Correia, Paul Maholm, James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf, and Charlie Morton and Scott Olsen battling for the final spot. 

Correia spent last season with the San Diego Padres and did not perform very well.  Correia went 10-10 with an ERA of 5.40 in 28 starts.  Despite these poor numbers, Correia is capable of leading this young rotation in the right direction.  Paul Maholm has yet to put it all together for an entire season.  Last season, the lefty finished with a 9-15 record and an ERA of 5.10 in 185.1 innings.  Maholm has shown that he can be successful in the Major Leagues.  In his “career year” in 2008, Maholm went 9-9 with an ERA of 3.71 in 31 starts.  He also pitched 206.1 innings, held batters to a .263 average, and struck out a career-high 139 batters.  McDonald was acquired from the Dodgers last season for Octavio Dotel.  In his final six starts of the season last year, McDonald did not allow more than three runs in any of those starts.  He finished the month of September with a 2-2 record and an ERA of 2.31 in 35 innings.  In those 35 innings, McDonald held opposing hitters to a .246 average while striking out 30 batters.  The young right-hander just needed an opportunity to start every fifth day in the Major Leagues.  Ross Ohlendorf’s 2010 record of 1-11 does not do him any justice.  Ohlendorf not only had his season cut short due to injury, but he suffered from the lack of run support during his starts.  In his 21 starts last year, Ohlendorf received a run support of 2.9.  In addition to that, the right-hander allowed four runs or more in only five of his 21 starts.  In his last five starts of the season, Ohlendorf finished 0-3 but had an ERA of 3.16 in 25.2 innings.  The final spot of the rotation will be between Charle Morton and Scott Olsen.  Morton had a horrendous 2010 season going 2-12 with an ERA of 7.57 in 17 starts for the Pirates.  During Spring Training, however, he is making a case by posting a 1.29 ERA in 14 innings and holding batters to a .196 batting average.  Scott Olsen spent the last two seasons in Washington and only appeared in 28 games because of injury.  Last season, Olsen went 4-8 with and ERA of 5.56 in 81 innings.  The former Marlin had his best Major League season in 2008 as a member of the Marlins.  He finished 8-11 with an ERA of 4.20 in 201.2 innings.  This spring, Olsen is not pitching himself out of any considerations for a rotation spot.  In just 2.1 innings, Olsen has allowed four runs on five hits and two home runs.

The Pirates bullpen has some nice pieces.  The Pirates signed lefty Joe Beimel to a minor league contract during the offseason with the intentions of using him as a left-handed option late in games.  Beimel spent last year with the Rockies.  In 71 games for Colorado, Beimel went 1-2 with an ERA of 3.40 in 45 innings.  The Pirates also signed Jose Veras to a minor league contract.  Veras spent last season with the Florida Marlins where he appeared in 48 games and finished 3-3 with an ERA of 3.75.  Out of 26 inherited runners last season, Veras allowed only one of the runners to score.  Veras figures to be a nice sixth or seventh inning reliever.  Both of these acquisitions will help bridge the gap between the starting pitcher and both the setup man Evan Meek and the closer Joel Hanrahan. 

Evan Meek was selected to represent the Pirates at the All-Star game.  The Pirates’ reliever was well deserving of the selection.  In 48.2 innings prior to the All-Star break, Meek went 4-3 with an ERA of 1.11, recorded one save, and a WHIP of 0.945.  Hanrahan was acquired from the Nationals in 2009 and got off to a great start finishing 0-1 with an ERA of 1.72 in 31.1 innings.  Last season, however, Hanrahan did not replicate his success.  In 69.2 innings last season, Hanrahan finished 4-1 with an ERA of 3.62 and recorded six saves in 10 tries.  This season, Hanrahan has already been named the closer by manager Clint Hurdle.  Hanrahan has shown at time that he is capable of closing out games, so we’ll see what the Pirates will get out him this season.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have something to look forward to this season.  They have a young and exciting team that can do some damage given the proper attitude.  With the acquisition of manager Clint Hurdle and veterans like Overbay and Diaz, the Pirates should be ready to compete this year.  When it is all said and done this season, I believe the Pirates will be on the outside looking in at the playoff picture.  Having said that, I don’t expect the losing trend to last much longer in Pittsburgh.

D-backs Not Going Far in 2011

In what otherwise was a lost season for the Diamondbacks in 2010, the organization promoted Kirk Gibson as the new manager in July and hired GM Kevin Towers in September.  Even though the team finished 34-49 under Gibson last season, they finished 27-31 in the final three months of the season.   

Last season, the Diamondbacks struck out more times than any other team in Major League Baseball with 1529 of them.  The team also finished in 28^th place with a team ERA of 4.81 in 1432 innings.  As a result, the organization decided to go in a different direction in the offseason.  The first major move of the offseason was to part ways with third baseman Mark Reynolds.  Despite hitting 32 home runs and knocking in 83 runs, Reynolds hit .198 in 499 at-bats and led Major League Baseball with 211 strikeouts.  The D-backs sent Reynolds to the Orioles for relievers David Hernandez and Kameron Mickolio.

The organization also added starting pitchers Zach Duke and Armando Galarraga, closer J.J. Putz, catcher Henry Blanco, corner infielder Geoff Blum, third baseman Melvin Mora, first baseman Russell Branyan, and outfielders Willie Bloomquist and Xavier Nady.  Interestingly enough, Blanco, Blum, Branyan, Bloomquist, and Nady all played in San Diego while Towers was the GM there.  Towers was smart enough to figure out that since he had success in San Diego with those players, then why not have them join his new team?  These veteran players know what it takes to win in the big leagues and should help the young stars like outfielders Justin Upton and Chris Young, shortstop Stephen Drew, and starting pitchers Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy.

This young core group of players should be productive of years to come.  Outfielder Justin Upton has tremendous ability but had a down year last season.  He hit .273 with 17 home runs, 69 RBI, and 18 stolen bases.  Upton is capable of being a .300 hitter with 30 to 35 home runs, over 100 RBI, and over 30 steals.  The other young outfielder, Chris Young, had a nice bounce-back year in 2010.  After hitting .212 with 15 home runs, 42 RBI, and 11 stolen bases in 2009, Young hit .257 with 27 home runs, 91 RBI, and 28 stolen bases.  Both Young and Upton do strikeout a lot during the course of a season, but if they are able to make contact the baseball more often, they should be more productive in 2011.

At the start of the 2010 season, the Diamondbacks rotation featured Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Ian Kennedy, Edwin Jackson, and Rodrigo Lopez.  Webb hasn’t pitched since 2009 and has since signed with the Rangers during the offseason, Haren and Jackson were traded during the season, and Lopez signed a minor league contract with the Atlanta Braves during the offseason. 

In return for the Haren and Jackson trades, the D-backs got White Sox top prospect Daniel Hudson and left-handed starter Joe Saunders from the Angels.  Hudson finished the 2010 campaign on a high note with the D-backs.  He finished 7-1 with an ERA of 1.69 in 11 starts.  Saunders pitched okay in his stint with Arizona.  In 13 starts, Saunders finished 3-7 with an ERA of 4.25 in 82.2 innings.  Ian Kennedy made all 32 starts with the D-backs last season and pitched better in the second half with a 5-3 record and an ERA of 3.38 in 14 starts.  During the 2010 season, the team called up Barry Enright to fill one of the rotation spots.  Enright certainly made his case to be considered for this year’s rotation going 6-7 with an ERA of 3.91 in 17 starts.  In Enrigt’s first 12 starts of his career, he went 6-2 with an ERA of 2.63 in 63.1 innings.  The Diamondbacks also added Zach Duke and Armando Galarraga during the offseason to battle for a spot in the rotation in 2011.  Unfortunately for Duke, he will miss the first month of the season with two broken bones in his left hand.  So, Galarraga figures to be a lock for the final spot in the rotation.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a young and exciting squad that should be successful in the near future.  They probably won’t be in a playoff race during the second half of the season, but they should provide plenty of headaches for anybody who has to play them down the stretch.

Will the Brew Crew Play During Oktoberfest?

The Brewers ended a 25-year playoff drought when they faced the Phillies in the NL Division Series in 2008.  Unfortunately for the Brewers, they were eliminated by Philadelphia in four games.  Since then, the Brewers have finished under .500 and in third place for two consecutive seasons under Ken Macha.  The Brewers last year finished with a 77-85 record and played losing baseball both at home and on the road.  The team could not get it done against their division last year finishing 37-40.  The Brewers had no problem against the Pirates going 13-5 against them, but struggled mightily against the Division Champion Cincinnati Reds going 3-11.

The organization’s first order of business was to change the direction of the ballclub.  The team dismissed manager Ken Macha and hired former Angels’ bench coach Ron Roenicke.  The Angels organization is known for producing great managers.  Before Roenicke took the job in Milwaukee; Bud Black and Joe Maddon took managerial positions in San Diego and Tampa Bay respectively and have had success.  Roenicke hopes to instill a winning attitude in Milwaukee once again. 

The manager alone cannot win ball games.  In order to have success, you need really good players to get the job done.  The Brewers feature one of the best lineups in the National League.  The team ranked second in the NL in home runs with 182 and fourth in the NL with 710 RBI last season.  This lineup is headlined by outfielder Ryan Braun, first baseman Prince Fielder, and third baseman Casey McGehee.  Braun and Fielder were not at the top of their game last season.  Braun finished the season hitting .304 with 25 home runs and 103 RBI.  Fielder hit .261 with 32 home runs and 83 RBI.  If those were underachieving statistics, then I would definitely be looking forward to next season when Prince is in his contract year.  That’s right Brewers fans, Fielder could actually play himself out of Milwaukee after this season.  The third part of the trio, Casey McGehee, had a career year in 2010.  The third baseman was given a chance to play every day at hit .285 with 23 home runs, 104 RBI, and 38 doubles.  The Brewers have a nice 3-4-5 combination in the lineup that will win a lot of games for them this year.

Unlike the dominant hitting the Brewers displayed last season, the pitching was a whole different story.  The Brewers’ pitchers ranked 14^th in the NL in team ERA at 4.58 last season.  The team also managed to record a measly 35 saves despite having the All-time saves leader, Trevor Hoffman last season.  Hoffman did not perform very well as the Brewers’ closer.  Hoffman recorded just 10 saves in 50 games and had and ERA of 5.89.  Needless to say, Hoffman relinquished his duties to John Axford mid way through the season.  Axford filled in nicely converting 24 saves out of 27 save opportunities and sported an ERA of 2.48 in 58 innings. Aside from Axford, the Brewers bullpen combined to blow 18 saves and lose 27 games.  This offseason, the Brewers added former Dodgers closer Takahashi Saito.  Saito spent last season with the Braves finishing with a 2-3 record and an ERA of 2.83 in 54 innings. 

The starting rotation was not that bad last season.  Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf, David Bush, and rookie Chris Narveson combined to finish 47-41 and posted a combined ERA of 3.15 in 742.2 innings.  David Bush is no longer with the team, but they did add these starting pitchers from Kansas City and Toronto.  Pitcher Zack Greinke and shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt were acquired from Kansas City for shortstop Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, and prospect Jake Odorizzi.  The Brewers also acquired Shaun Marcum from the Blue Jays for prospect Brett Lawrie.  Of the two starting pitchers, Marcum seems to be the better pickup.  Greinke had a poor season in Kansas City in 2010 finishing 10-14 with an ERA of 4.17 in 220 innings.  During the offseason, Greinke suffered a hairline fracture in one of his ribs.  He is expected to start the season on the disabled list.  A fractured rib is something very serious and difficult to come back from, especially for a pitcher.  If Greinke returns fully healthy after his stint on the disabled list, then the Brewers should hope that he could be the pitcher that won the American League CY Young Award in 2009. Marcum bounced back nicely from missing all of 2009 recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Marcum finished 13-8 with an ERA of 3.64 in 31 starts last season.

With the acquisitions of a new manager top of the line pitching, the Brewers figure to be in the playoff race at the end of the season.  Not only are the Brewers geared to compete, but the fact that there is not clear cut favorite to win the NL Central gives them a legitimate shot at wining the division.  This is definitely an exciting time for Brewers’ fans, but by no means should these fans feel like the Brewers are a lock to make the postseason.