Touch'Em All 01/29/11

Hey All!

Here is our latest episode. Don't forget to email the show: touchemall@rocketmail.com

The Draft Day Survival Guide

Everyone has their own strategy for fantasy baseball. And, while everyone thinks that theirs works best, including me, there are some general strategies that you can follow to help make the best out of your draft. Drafting a good team is not necessarily about drafting the best players. Fantasy is nothing more than conjecture or guesswork at times. However, if you follow a few of my simple strategies, you should be in good shape to make that playoff run.

1. Research and Mock Drafts

Knowing who to draft is one thing. Knowing how to take advantage of draft position can take your fantasy teams to another level. Your season won't be made in the draft, but understanding how to draft a team can definitely get you off to a good start. And, don't think you can just show up on draft day and be ready. Go out and research. Looking at depth charts, trends, ballpark factors, and past stats will definitely help you understand where a player is going. Doing mock drafts is a big help too. Mock drafts allow you to draft a team so you can try out different strategies. This is a great place to put that research you did to good use.

2. Draft Thin Positions First

We all know the names Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun, Carl Crawford, Prince Fielder, and Miguel Cabrera. What do they all have in common? They are First Basemen or Outfielders. I point this out because those positions are among the deepest in fantasy baseball compared to positions like shortstop or third base. To put it into perspective:

1B A: 115 R/42 HR/118 RBI/.312 AVG/ 14 SB
1B B: 113 R/33 HR/108 RBI/.256 AVG/ 0 SB

Player A was Albert Pujols who finished as the top 1B in fantasy baseball once again in 2010. Player B? Mark Teixeira who happened to finish 9th in the rankings. Let's look at some shortstops.

SS A: 92 R/21 HR/76 RBI/.300 AVG/32 SB
SS B: 59 R/10 HR/65 RBI/.269 AVG/17 SB

In this example, Player A was Hanley Ramirez who also finished as the top player at his position. Player B was Ian Desmond who finished 10th.

The Point? There is a bigger drop-off in the numbers at shortstop than at first base. Draft accordingly. If you have the first pick, I would pick Hanley because you can always get a good first baseman later.

3. Wait on Starting Pitching

All too often, people try to take all the elite starting pitchers. The problem with that is you forget to draft hitters. Pitching is one part of fantasy and a part the you can wait on, quite honestly. Its ok to take a Roy Halladay or Tim Lincecum but dont go after both because you will most likely lose out on a key position player. If your team is full of pitchers but no hitters, you have trading chips. Pitchers do not carry as much value in trades as hitters do and therefore, you won't get that Halladay for Pujols trade you thought you could. Its good to have a strong pitching staff but don't make it at the cost of your lineup.

4. Don't Pay for Saves

Ahh, closers. Another over-drafted position. I say this because saves are only one-tenth of fantasy scoring. In a 25 round draft, do you really want to waste a 6th round pick on Mariano Rivera? Folks, its all about perspective. You can win a fantasy league without recording a single save, though its not recommended. Closers are great to have because getting one save can win your week, but at what expense. I find that closers provide little value and carrying more than one or two is just not worth it.

5. Have Fun!

The worst thing you could do on draft day is not have fun. The best way to accomplish this is to get together with everyone in your league and do a live draft. The human interaction you find in a live draft is way better than looking at a screen with with lowly chat box. It promotes a sense of true ownership because everyone knows each other and can connect on a more personal level. Not only that, but talking smack and watching other owners make draft day blunders is so much more fun in person.

That's all I got folks. The latest episode of the podcast should be up over the weekend. Don't forget to email the show at touchemall@rocketmail.com. Until next time...

Interesting Signings in Tampa Bay

Just when I thought the Rays were going to go with a complete youth movement in 2011, they go ahead and sign two veterans in Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez.  Not only were the acquisitions a surprise but the amount of money for which they spent on these guys was amazing.  The Rays managed to sign Manny Ramirez for just two million while signing Damon for a little over five million.  If you ask me, I think it’s a steal!  Granted, both of these guys are definitely at the tail end of their careers but I believe they still have some ability left in their proverbial tanks.  The other bonus to these acquisitions is that no one will lose playing time.  The young rookie Desmond Jennings will still get a shot at an everyday spot in Tampa and a guy like Ben Zobrist will still be penciled in on an everyday basis as well. Damon and Ramirez will alternate between the designated hitter spot and left field.  Actually, we’ll probably be seeing more of Damon in the outfield than Ramirez. 

One could argue that if your going through a youth movement of your team, you shouldn’t mix in veterans who expect to play everyday.  Well, I already covered the fact that no one will be losing playing time, so the only other factor that I could think of is how these players will fit with a young team.  Of the two players that were added to the Rays roster, Ramirez is of more concern.  Hands down!  Think about it, he is only making two million and he’s at the twilight of his career.  So, depending on how the Rays play in 2011, you could see a positive, helpful Manny, or you could see the negative side of “Manny being Manny.”  What I mean by that is instead of having a positive leader in the clubhouse; the Rays could wind up with a selfish, lazy, unproductive teammate.  

Signing Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez for 2011 is worth the risk for the Rays.  In fact, I think it sends a positive message to both the players and the fans.  Both of these players can only help you on the field.  If for any reason things don’t turn out the way the Front Office expected, then I’m confident the organization would know what to do in order to eliminate any type of circus in St. Petersburg.

If the season were to start today, this would be my projected starting lineup for the 2011 Rays:

RF       Desmond Jennings

LF       Johnny Damon (L)

3B       Evan Longoria

2B       Ben Zobrist (S)

DH      Manny Ramirez

1B       Matt Joyce (L)

CF       B.J. Upton

SS        Reid Brignac (S)

C          John Jaso (L)

Touch'Em All 01/23/11

In this episode, we covered the latest news around the league, talked draft strategy, and gave our two cents on the top players at 1B and 3B. Don't forget to email the show: touchemall@rocketmail.com

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Oakland Moving in the Right Direction

In the AL West, the team that surprised me the most has been the Oakland Athletics. Not only did they make some good moves for their lineup, they also made great moves in their pitching staff. Their rotation is already formidable with arms like Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden, Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez, and now Rich Harden. They also made some recent bullpen moves that were exception, as well. They already have a great closer in Andrew Bailey and a good set-up man in Brad Ziegler. Still, the A's felt like that was not enough and they went out and signed Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes.

What do these signings bring to the table? Simple. They brought in two guys who not only have experience closing out games, but they have experience on the big stage in pressure situations. Both have been on playoff teams, Fuentes was with the Angels and Twins while Balfour was with the Rays. Balfour was a great middle reliever for the Rays and pitched well for them in the 2008 postseason. Fuentes had a terrific season in 2009 and is a lefty which sets him up to potentially be the lefty specialist. A lefty specialist that can also close games? Sign me up!

The A's finished .500 in 2010 and second in the division behind Texas. While I don't think they will catch Texas, I still believe they will build on that record and have taken steps forward to ensure. The moves made on the pitching staff have eclipsed those made in the lineup. In spite of that, the moves they made in the lineup were great additions, as well. They improved their outfield by getting David DeJesus and Josh Willingham. And bringing in Hideki Matsui to be the DH was not too shabby either. He brings a veteran bat with a .290 career average and the pop to hit 20-30 HRs.

All in all, this was a great offseason for the A's that should translate into a great regular season for them. Texas better watch out because the A's may want to challenge them for that AL West Crown.

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Hey all!

If you have specific questions or topics you would like us to talk about on air, feel free to email us at touchemall@rocketmail.com

Touch'Em All 01/15/11

Hey All!

Our latest episode is up. In it, we discussed the American League Awards, Moves, and made our Predictions for 2011.

Soriano Signing Done Out of Desperation

The Yankees agreed to sign closer Rafael Soriano to set up Mariano Rivera for the 2011 season.  The deal is said to be worth $35 million for three years.  That is way too much for a set up man! There’s a lot of risk involved in this signing.  Who’s to say that Soriano will continue to dominate as a set up man in the Bronx?  Soriano has played in Seattle, Atlanta and Tampa Bay so far in his career.  These places are not exactly pressure cookers. 

While it is true that the Yankees are in need of relief pitching, they really needed to focus on improving their starting rotation.  According to Baseball Reference, the Yankees finished in the lower tier of the American League in save percentage at 68% in 2010.  In addition, the Yankees starting rotation averaged six innings pitched per game in 2010 and consequently finished second in cheap wins in the American League.  A cheap wins consists of a starting pitcher recording a win while pitching less than six innings or allowing more than three runs.  These statistics show that although the Yankees were able to win 95 games in 2010, their pitching outside of C.C. Sabathia barely had anything to do with their success.  In fact, it was the Yankees pitching that prevented them from advancing to the World Series in 2010. 

The likelihood of such scenario reoccurring for the Yankees is slim, so I don’t see the Yankees making the postseason in 2011 with a rotation that includes Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre.  The Yankees not only missed out on a bunch of viable free agent pitchers to fill out their rotation but they just stood there and saw their most hated rivals, the Red Sox, acquire a bunch of star power to their roster to ensure themselves a division title.  Part of the Yankees inability to secure any arms for their rotation has to do with the waiting game that they are in with Andy Pettitte.  The veteran lefty is not sure about whether he wants to come back for 2011 or finally call it a career.  Unfortunately for the Yankees, it appears that Pettitte is not ready to come back just yet.  And so now the Yankees are forced to go back to the drawing board. 

Rafael Soriano has become, without a doubt, the Yankees’ biggest offseason addition.  While the reliever’s ability to pitch is not in question, his ability to pitch in New York might be.  Soriano’s lone appearance at the New Yankee Stadium went well recording a save against the Yankees as a member of the Rays.  Having said that, an inning pitched is not much of a sample size.  Soriano is going to have to deal with the New York media and the pressures of pitching in the Bronx. 

The signing of Soriano was done more out of desperation than necessity.  The Yankees once again threw money at the problem.  Last time I checked, there is nothing wrong with spending a lot of money on a set up man.  Ownership has every right to spend their money the way they see fit.  The Yankees would have been in better shape if they had thrown money at a free agent starting pitcher or acquire one via trade.  Opting to sign a starting pitcher would have allowed the Yankees to sign two or three more available arms to fill out the bullpen for just about the same amount of money they gave Soriano.  Instead, ownership felt that the team needed a big splash signing in order to remain a legitimate competitor in the American League East.  If the Yankees want to continue to build a contender for 2011, it would behoove them to sign a veteran starting pitcher or two before Opening Day.     

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Baltimore Orioles: A Bright Future

The American East Division has gone through a major face-lift thus far in the offseason.  The Red Sox have decided to imitate the Yankees by throwing money at the problem.  The difference between what the Yankees have done in the past and what the Red Sox have done this offseason is that Boston has added players with track records as opposed to players coming off of career-high seasons ala Carl Pavano.  The Red Sox have positioned themselves as the bar none favorites in their division, but not so fast…

I’m not saying that the Red Sox won’t win their division but there is a ball club in Baltimore that has quietly been adding pieces to their long awaited puzzle.  The Orioles have been the second-most active team in their division.  The additions actually began late last season with the manager.  The Orioles were smart by adding Buck Showalter before the end of the season.  Consequently, the Orioles finished 34-23 to finish up the season.  This team already has young star players in Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Matt Weiters as well as veteran second baseman Brian Roberts.  So, the question on talent is not up for debate.  However, something always seems to be missing with this team year in and year out since their last postseason appearance in 1997.  It seems that there are a number of key elements to success in Baltimore. 

The first ingredient, if you will, would have to be experienced guidance.  The aforementioned addition of Buck Showalter as manager certainly contributed to the organizations efforts.  However, additional moves to the coaching staff solidified their goal.  The key additions on the coaching staff are Willie Randolph, Jim Presley, and Mark Connor.  Randolph spent last season as the bench coach in Milwaukee under Ken Macha.  Although his stint as manager with the Mets was not all that impressive, Randolph was instrumental during the Yankees’ success as their third base coach and bench coach from 1994-2004.  Jim Presley is the perfect match in Baltimore for the 2011 season because of how the team has been built.  Presley served under Joe Girardi and Fredi Gonzalez as the Marlins hitting coach from 2006 to part of 2010.  During this time, the Marlins put up impressive offensive numbers.  The club finished in the top-five in the National League in categories such as homeruns, batting average, on base percentage and on base plus slugging percentage during his tenure.  Finally Mark Connor, will be the most important key to the teams success on the mound.  Connor was responsible for the Arizona Diamondbacks pitching accolades from 1998-2000.  The D-backs finished second in baseball in earned run average during the 1999 season.  In addition Randy Johnson was awarded the CY Young Award two years in a row (1999-2000) under Connor.

Now that the coaching staff is squared away, the next order of business for success in Baltimore is for them to play to their strengths.  In the Orioles case, their ballpark is a “hitters park.”  Having said that it was crucial for Baltimore to focus on producing runs rather than preventing runs.  I’m not saying that pitching is not important, but if the ballpark that your team plays in favors hitters rather than pitchers, you would rather go into the game with better hitters than your opposition.  This is especially the case since the Orioles play in their ballpark for half the season, or 81 games.  In any event, the Orioles added the epitome of a power hitter in Mark Reynolds.  Reynolds has played his entire career in Arizona as their third baseman.  Despite being amongst the top in strikeouts for three consecutive seasons, his power is second to none.  And even though Arizona is considered a fair hitters park, Reynolds will be playing in a ban box in Baltimore.  Anytime you can add that amount of power to that ballpark, you go for it!  In addition to Reynolds, the Orioles added veteran first baseman Derrek Lee.  Lee spent last season with both the Cubs and the Braves.  The 14-year All-Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and World Series Champion will add much needed experience both on and off the field.  Lee was part of the 2003 World Champion Florida Marlins in addition to playoff appearances with the Cubs in 2007 and 2008 and last season with the Braves.  I feel that Lee’s defensive game is undervalued.  The first baseman is a three-time gold glover and has saved numerous of errors from infielders.  Just like Reynolds is a prolific homerun hitter, his defensive skills are average at best, so with the addition of Lee, Reynolds’ defensive numbers will definitely improve.  Another minor, but still important move was the addition of shortstop J.J. Hardy.  Hardy spent last season with the Minnesota Twins and spent the previous five seasons in Milwaukee.  Surprisingly, Hardy is fifth active in fielding percentage amongst shortstops in the Major Leagues.  Just ahead him at number four is Cesar Izturis.  I only mention this name because he to resigned with the Orioles this offseason.  Izturis spent the past two seasons in Baltimore.  Although his offensive numbers do not fit their recipe for success, his defensive presence undoubtedly helps the teams pitching staff.

Incidentally, the Orioles pitching staff seems to be their Achilles Heal.  Although hitting is important in Baltimore, pitching should not be ignored.  Last season, the Orioles tried to improve the pitching staff by adding Kevin Millwood to their rotation.  Needless to say, the experiment did not work.  Millwood finished 4-16 with and earned run average over five.  This is certainly not what we are accustomed to seeing from Millwood.  So, instead of relying on a veteran arm, the Orioles appear to be going with their young arms anchored by their lone veteran Jeremy Guthrie.  Despite his sub-par win-loss record, Guthrie finished with an earned run average under four and logged in 200 innings or more for two consecutive seasons.  He relies more on the defense behind him since he walked only 50 batters and struck out a mere 119 batters, but allowed a batting average of .243 to opposing hitters.  The other four starters in the rotation are Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Brian Bergesen, and Chris Tillman.  Matusz was expected to dominate the American League and although he had 18 quality starts, the lefty fell on some hard times on the mound during the season.  Altogether, these young arms had decent seasons in 2010 but would definitely need to improve in 2011 to make a run at the American League East.

The bullpen is actually looking like a strong suite for the club in 2011.  Having said that, there are a lot of ifs involved.  After signing Mike Gonzalez to 12 million, two-year deal, the left-handed pitcher only pitched in 29 games due to a left shoulder strain that lingered throughout the whole season.  Japanese pitcher Koji Uehara also battled some injuries, which eventually landed him in the bullpen in 2010.  Uehara ended up closing games for the Orioles in 2010, converting 13 saves of his 15 opportunities.  The Orioles also took a chance on journeyman reliever Alfredo Simon out of the Dominican Republic.  He was the Orioles closer for part of the season, converting 17 saves of his 21 chances.  Jason Berken did not fair too well as a starter for the Orioles in 2009, so in 2010 we was moved to the bullpen.  In 62.1 innings pitched, he had an earned run average of 3.03 and walked only 19 batters.  In addition to this quartet of good relief pitchers, the Orioles just signed veteran reliever Kevin Gregg to their bullpen. Gregg pitched for Toronto last season, recording 37 saves and posting an ERA of 3.51.  Before pitching for the Blue Jays, Gregg played for the Cubs, Marlins, and Angels.  Gregg will serve as an incredible source of experience for this relatively young rotation.

After looking at the prospects of the 2011 Baltimore Orioles, no one can disagree that this team has been built for success.  Headlined by the superb coaching staff, the Orioles will rely on not only their ability to hit the ball out the ballpark but also rely on their defensive attributes.  And if the lineup lives up to its expectations, which is more than likely, then it would have to be up to the pitching staff to supersede their expectations.  Ultimately, the inexperience of the rotation will probably hold any thoughts of Baltimore competing for a playoff spot in 2011.

Marlins are still looking for a left-handed bat off the bench…

The Marlins are almost done with setting up their 25-man roster for 2011.  The only thing the Marlins need is a left-handed bat off their bench.  The Marlins are trying to sign someone via free agency to fill that void but an in-house fix shouldn’t be ruled out.  John Baker could fill that role.  Baker is currently coming back from Tommy John surgery that he had last season.  Apparently, recovering from the surgery will not prevent him from handling the bat by the start of the 2011 campaign.  Despite Baker being a viable option off the bench, I feel that it is important to have someone who can also play the field.  Therefore, the Marlins should probably continue their efforts to sign a left-handed bat that can play the outfield and/or first base.  There are a few names that have been mentioned such as Jason Giambi, Ryan Church, and Mark Kotsay.  Let’s talk about these names.

Jason Giambi would be an interesting choice.  Giambi, a first baseman, spent the entire 2010 season with the Rockies.  He was used primarily as a pinch hitter with occasional starts at first base.  Giambi hit six home runs and drove in 35 runs.  If the Marlins were to sign the veteran to come off the bench, he would probably be limited to just that.  I don’t see the Marlins using Giambi as a late inning defensive replacement.  Although he is not horrible on the field, the Marlins have better choices to backup Gaby Sanchez at first base.  I would prefer the Marlins to sign someone who is more versatile on the field. 

Ryan Church can be an option.  Church has played for the Expos/Nationals, the Mets, Braves, Pirates, and Diamondbacks.  He has suffered a couple of concussions in his career and has not been able to put things together since.  What I like about Church is that he is a plus defender in the outfield.  In addition to his defensive abilities, I believe his production at the plate will improve from last season where he hit .201, 5 HR, 25 RBI in 106 games.  There is a risk however of Ryan Church becoming the Mike Lamb of 2010 for the Marlins.  Lamb signed a minor league contract with the Fish last season and was not productive as the Marlins left-handed bat off the bench.

The choice that makes the most sense for the Marlins is actually a former Marlin.  Mark Kotsay played with the Marlins from 1997-2000.  After his stint with the Marlins, he played in San Diego, Oakland, Atlanta, Boston, and the last two seasons in Chicago with the White Sox.  As a White Sox last season, Kotsay played both at first base and in the outfield.  This type of versatility is what the Marlins need on their roster.  In addition to the versatility you are also getting an experienced player who has played in South Florida.   

Touch'Em All 01/08/11

Here is the first episode of our podcast.  It will hopefully be on iTunes tomorrow.  Enjoy and please subscribe.